The Canadian labour market has stumbled, as the unemployment rate rose more than anticipated to 6.4% in June.
The Bank of Canada is expected to continue waiting for its next rate reduction despite the report’s disappointment.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there was a loss in jobs totaling 1,400. Figures Statistics Canada released its latest report today. The increase was 1,900 full-time and part-time, but the loss of 3,400 jobs at full-time. The economists had expected a gain of at least 25,000 positions.
Who is feeling the pain of economic recession?
The largest job losses occurred in the transportation and warehouse industries (-12,000, -1.1%) as well as in public administration (-8800, -0.7%). However, gains in accommodations and food services (+17,800, +1.5%) were also reported.
Ryan Sims, a rate expert, observed that “we are witnessing job losses, especially in manufacturing and office jobs. However, we have seen massive growth in the fast-food industry, hotels, etc.” He says that this trend has existed for a while.
The national Canadian unemployment rate rose 1.3 percentages points from April last year to June this year. This is equivalent to an additional 42,000 unemployed people compared with May.
StatCan data reveal that in May, only 21,4% of the unemployed transitioned into employment. This is a rate lower than pre-pandemic levels of 26,7%. The proportion of those unemployed for a long time (more than 28 weeks) increased by four percentage points, to 17.6%.
StatCan noted that a lower percentage of people who are unemployed and transitioning to employment could indicate a more difficult time finding emploi in the current market.
Youth aged 15-24, with a rise of 0.9 points in unemployment to 13.5% and newly arrived immigrants, who saw their rate increase to 12.7%, are the most affected.
National Bank economists have highlighted the disparity between recent population growth and job creation.
In a recent note, economists Matthieu Ducharme and Alexandra Arseneau wrote that “job creation has not kept up with population growth’s rapid rise” for quite some time. A stagnation of employment in June is an indication that a recession is approaching.
Quebec lost 18,000 jobs (-0.4%) while New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador gained 3,000 positions (+0.8%) and 2600 (+1.1%) respectively.
When will the Bank of Canada cut its rate? July or September, you ask?
Bruno Valko is the VP for national sales at RMG. He says that while Canada’s job numbers may not show a sharp drop due to high interest rates or a weakening economy, they are still “horrible.”
In a letter to his subscribers, he said, “We can see it in our business with the clients who are fighting to purchase homes or renew their contracts at higher rates.” Now that the economics have seen our real job market, I hope they will see it. The job market is You can also check out our other blog posts. resilient. The weak are resilient [and] The Bank of Canada is going to notice.”
BMO’s Chief Economist Douglas Porter highlighted the significance of the data, saying, “This Report drives home the fact that the Canadian Labour Market can no longer be considered as tight – in fact, it has been rapidly tipping the other way.”
Most economists still believe that the Bank of Canada is going to tread carefully before it delivers its next expected rate cut. This could happen as soon as July 24 or as late as September.
Porter writes that “as an independent result, a softening of the job market increases the chances of a Bank of Canada interest rate cut.” However, the Bank will be hesitant to cut rates if wages are sticky.
In June, the average hourly wage was $34.91, an increase of 5.4% from May.
Porter said that the BoC would not be able to cut rates in July if the inflation data for June, which will be published on the 16th of July, was “exceptionally mild.” Porter also suggested that, while the job market is weak, it may be the case that rate reductions are delayed until later this year. Variable-rate mortgage holders, however, might still see a decrease this month.
Leslie Preston is an economist with TD. She pointed out the importance of key economic indicators that will be released before the BoC’s rate decision on July 24, which will determine whether or not the BoC moves rates in September.
She wrote: “Canada’s economy, in either case isn’t falling off a precipice and we anticipate rate reductions will be gradual for the rest of the year.”